GOLD, Monday forecast, December 9
An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 1462, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1468.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below support level 1458, which will be followed by moving down to support level 1454 and 1450.
Weekly forecast, December 9 - 13
Last weeks we can see world economy recovery, that is positive signal for uptrend on equity markets and oil prices, downtrend for gold. US, EU and China PMIs going up with the same speed, on Friday US non-farm payrolls news shown very good results and unemployment felt more deeper (3.6% to 3.5%), where same time Average Hourly Earnings increased on 3.1%, that pushing US consumption up. US % rates on Wednesday will be unchanged and more possible FED Chairman Powell speech will be neutral, that also will be good signal for markets recovery after series of % rates decreasing with speeches about negative economic conditions.
But all this positive situation can be broken on December 15 with implantation of new trade tariffs for China from US side on 160 billion dollars, that can break phase 1 deal potential. So if tariffs will be delayed again, this may prolong expectations for phase 1 deal signing and markets will be positive. But Trump already had one delay of this tariffs and seems that in second time he will not go on this step, as his authority and unwavering will be broken, so in this time only China should made step forward. In case if December 15 news tariffs will be implemented and phase 1 deal will not be signed markets will get negative without any good expectations, that create downtrend on equity, oil and uptrend on gold.
Most important news of this week
Tuesday: EU ZEW Economic Sentiment
Wednesday: OPEC Monthly Report, US Core CPI (YoY), Crude Oil Inventories, US FOMC Statement, US Fed Interest Rate Decision, US FOMC Press Conference
Thursday: EU ECB Interest Rate Decision, EU ECB Press Conference
Friday: US Retail Sales
Forecast and technical analysis
An uptrend will start from support levels 1457 - 1354, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1468 and 1478.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below support level 1457, which will be followed by moving down to support level 1445.
Monthly forecast, December 2019 - January 2020
The uptrend may be expected to continue, while pair is trading above support level 1454 - 1445, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 1487 and if it keeps on moving up above that level, we may expect the pair to reach resistance level 1513.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below support level 1445, which will be followed by moving down to support level 1418.