Morning Comments; Thursday, November 14th, 2019

Corn and soybeans tried to find a solid footing yesterday following recent losses. For soybeans, strength came from news that China is still showing interest in our offerings as they are the lowest in the current global market. Even with ongoing trade issues, China has booked a reported 7 vessels of US soybeans this week. Soybeans are also taking light support from thoughts recent selling has been overdone, especially with a fair amount of the US crop still subject to winter weather conditions. Soybeans continue to struggle with South American production estimates though, and how these will likely nullify any US losses in the global market. Corn has found solid support at the long-term uptrend line drawn off the lows of September 9th and 12th. This puts major support right at $3.72, which has been our recent low. An overall lack of fresh fundamental news is plaguing the entire market. Today we will get the weekly ethanol production figures and trade is expecting to see another slight increase in output as margins have improved in recent weeks. Aside from that, trade developments and market reaction to impeachment talks will be key factors in today’s market action.

Highlights

* Markets follow path of least resistance

* Fall tillage limited this year

* ADM; Ethanol business is terrible

* No fresh news on Chinese trade

* China still buying US soybeans

* President Trump says trade deal will be on US terms

* Privates predict larger Brazil crops

* US rail traffic continues to slow

Corn

* Brazil corn production questioned

* US has 27.8 million acres to harvest

* Basis continues to firm in ECB

* Low test weights reported

* Tech support forms at $3.72

Soybeans

* Record Brazil soy production expected

* Private analysts peg Brazil soy at 124 mmt

* China continues to buy US soybeans

* Slow Canadian canola sales

* US has 11.34 million acres to harvest

Wheat

* Cold temps not causing winter loss

* World stocks remains large

* Market is oversold

* Global values under pressure

* USDA may lower ending stocks in next WASDE

Livestock

* Boxed beef highest since 2017

* Cash cattle lead futures

* Domestic pork in China up 188% on the year

* Economic news weighs on livestock

* China lifts ban on US poultry imports

This commentary is the sole opinion of Karl Setzer, Senior Commodity Risk Analyst for AgriVisor, LLC. This is intended for informational purposes only and not to be used for specific trading recommendations. The information used to generate this commentary is gathered from a variety of sources believed to be accurate. If you have any questions or would like additional market information, feel free to send an e-mail to ksetzer@agrivisor.com.




 

Market Commentary provided by:

Karl Setzer Grain Commentary